Last month, I interviewed psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2002 and recently authored the book��Thinking, Fast and Slow.
In this video, Kahneman discusses how his thinking about decision-making has changed over the years. Have a look (transcript follows):
Dr. Kahneman: When I started in this line of work some 40 years ago, we somehow believed that imposing your rationality on thinking, not necessarily of individuals, but of organizations, was a feasible objective. I sort of was a great believer in��decision analysis and so on and in systematic approaches to decision-making. And I believe that was going to happen. It looked so compelling, the case for decision analysis. And then it turns out that decision analysis is restricted to a few domains, like oil drilling, but it has not conquered the world as I expected it to, so from that point of view, I may have become a little more pessimistic than I was. I really thought that you could improve systems fairly easily of judgment and of decision-making. I still believe they can be improved, but I'm less optimistic about it.
Hot Oil Stocks To Buy For 2014: Statoil ASA (STO)
Statoil ASA (Statoil), incorporated on September 18, 1972, is an integrated energy company primarily engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. As of December 31, 2011, the Company had business operations in 41 countries and territories. Effective from January 1, 2011, the Company�� segments were Development and Production Norway; Development and Production International; Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy; Fuel & Retail, Other. As of 31 December 2011, the Company had proved reserves of 2,276 million barrels (mmbbl) and 3,150 billion cubic meters (bcm) (equivalent to 17,681 trillion cubic feet (tcf)) of natural gas, corresponding to aggregate proved reserves of 5,426 mmboe. In December 2011, the Company acquired Brigham Exploration Company. On April 14, 2011, Statoil's formation of a joint venture and sale of 40% of the Peregrino field off the coast of Brazil to the Sinochem Group was closed. With effect from January 2011, Statoil formed a joint venture with PTTEP of Thailand in its oil sands business and, as part of that transaction, sold PTTEP a 40% interest in the leases in Alberta, Canada. Statoil retains 60% ownership and operatorship of the oil sands project. In June 2012, the Company divested its 54% interest in Statoil Fuel & Retail ASA to Alimentation Couche-Tard.
Development and Production Norway
Development and Production Norway (DPN) consists of the Company�� field development and operational activities on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Development and Production Norway is the operator of 44 developed fields on the NCS. Statoil's equity and entitlement production on the NCS was 1.316 mmboe per day in 2011, which was about 71% of Statoil's total production. Acting as operator, DPN is responsible for approximately 72% of all oil and gas production on the NCS. In 2011, its average daily production of oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) on the NCS was 693 mboe, while its average daily gas production on the NCS was 99.1 mmcm (3.5 b! illion cubic feet (bcf)). The Company has an ownership interests in exploration acreage throughout the licensed parts of the NCS, both within and outside its production areas. It participates in 227 licenses on the NCS and is the operator for 171 of them. As of 31 December 2011, Statoil had a total of 1,369 mmbbl of proved oil reserves and 444 bcm (15.7 tcf) of proved natural gas reserves on the NCS. Total entitlement liquids and gas production in 2011 amounted to 1,316 mmboe per day.
Statoil's NCS portfolio consists of licenses in the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea. It has organized its production operations into four business clusters: Operations South, Operations North Sea West, Operations North Sea East and Operations North. The Operations South and Operations North Sea West and East clusters cover its licenses in the North Sea. Operations North covers the Company�� licenses in the Norwegian Sea and in the Barents Sea, while partner-operated fields cover the entire NCS and are included internally in the Operations South business cluster. During 2011, it two Statoil-operated oil discoveries: the Aldous discovery (PL265) in the North Sea and the Skrugard discovery (PL532) in the Barents Sea. The Aldous Major South discovery in PL265 on the Utsira Height in the Sleipner area is situated 140 kilometers west of Stavanger and 35 kilometers south of the Grane field. The Skrugard discovery is located about 250 kilometers off the coast from the Melkoya LNG plant in Hammerfest.
As of December 31, 2011, the Company�� fields under development included the Gudrun, Valemon, Visund South, Hyme, Stjerne, Vigdis North-East, Skuld, Vilje South, Skarv, and Marulk. In 2011, the Company�� total entitlement oil and NGL production in Norway was 252 mmbbl, and gas production was 36.2 bcm (1,287 bcf). The main producing fields in the Operations South area are Statfjord, Snorre, Tordis, Vigdis, Sleipner and partner-operated fields. Operations North Sea East is a gas area tha! t also co! ntains quantities of oil. The area includes the Troll, Fram, Vega, Oseberg and Tune fields. The Company�� producing fields in the Operations North area are Asgard, Mikkel, Yttergryta, Heidrun, Kristin, Tyrihans, Norne, Urd, Alve, Njord, Snohvit and Morvin.
Development and Production International
Development and Production International (DPI) is responsible for the development and production of oil and gas outside the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). In 2011, the segment was engaged in production in 12 countries: Canada, the United States, Brazil, Venezuela, Angola, Nigeria, Iran, Algeria, Libya, Azerbaijan, Russia and the United Kingdom. In 2011, DPI produced 28.9% of Statoil's total equity production of oil and gas. Statoil has exploration licenses in North America (Gulf of Mexico, Canada and Alaska), South America and sub-Saharan Africa (Brazil, Cuba, Suriname, Venezuela, Angola, Mozambique and Tanzania), Middle East and North Africa (Libya and Iran) and Europe and Asia (the Faeroes, Greenland, the United Kingdom, Azerbaijan and Indonesia). The main sanctioned development projects in which DPI is involved are in the United States, Angola and Canada. The Brigham Exploration Company acquisition added production of approximately 21 mboe per day (as of December) to Statoil's production and gave access to 1,500 square kilometers (375,000 acres) in the Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Williston Basin.
The Company has exploration licenses in North America (Gulf of Mexico, Canada and Alaska), South America and sub-Saharan Africa (Brazil, Cuba, Suriname, Venezuela, Angola, Mozambique and Tanzania), Middle East and North Africa (Libya and Iran), and Europe and Asia (the Faroes, Greenland, the United Kingdom, Azerbaijan and Indonesia). It completed 16 wells in 2011. Five were announced as discoveries: the Mukuvo and Lira discoveries in Angola, the Gavea and Peregrino South discovery in Brazil and the Logan discovery in Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Statoil acquired in! terests i! n six new licenses in Indonesia in 2011. Statoil has activities in the United States, with approximately 300 exploration leases in the GoM and 66 in Alaska. It is also an operator and partner in exploration licenses off the coast of Newfoundland in Canada. Statoil is operator and partner in exploration licenses off the coast of Newfoundland (11,138 square kilometers). It has exploration licenses in Brazil, Cuba, Suriname, Venezuela, Angola, Mozambique and Tanzania. The Company has licenses in Libya, Iran, Faroes, Greenland, the United Kingdom, Azerbaijan and Indonesia. In 2011, Statoil's petroleum production outside Norway amounted to an average of 334 mboe per day of entitlement production and 534 mboe per day of equity production.
The Company has activities in the United States Gulf of Mexico, the Appalachian region, south-west Texas, the Williston Basin, off the East Coast of Canada and in the oil sands of Alberta, Canada. It also has a representative office in Mexico City. Offshore, the Company has production interests in Hibernia and Terra Nova, and interests in two development projects. Its development and production activities in South America and sub-Saharan Africa comprise the Peregrino operatorship in Brazil, the Petrocedeno project in Venezuela, the Agbami offshore field in Nigeria and four Angolan offshore blocks. Statoil's development and production in the Middle East and North Africa in 2011, primarily encompassed Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Iran and Iraq. The Company�� Development and Production in Europe and Asia primarily comprises Azerbaijan, Russia, United Kingdom and Ireland.
Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy
Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy (MPR) is responsible for the transportation, processing, manufacturing, marketing and trading of crude oil, natural gas, liquids and refined products, and for developing business opportunities in renewables. It runs two refineries, two gas processing plants, one methanol plant and three crude! oil term! inals. MPR is also responsible for marketing gas supplies originating from the Norwegian state's direct financial interest (SDFI). In total, it is responsible for marketing approximately 80% of all Norwegian gas exports. In 2011, Statoil sold 36.1 bcm (1.3 tcf) of natural gas from the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) on its own behalf, in addition to approximately 33.5 bcm (1.2 tcf) of NCS gas on behalf of the Norwegian state. Statoil's total European gas sales, including third-party gas, amounted to 79.8 bcm (2.9 tcf) in 2011, of which 39.5 bcm (1.4 tcf) was gas sold on behalf of the Norwegian state. The Natural Gas business cluster is responsible for Statoil's marketing and trading of natural gas worldwide, for power and emissions trading and for overall gas supply planning. In 2011, the Company sold 36.1 bcm (1.3 tcf) of natural gas from the NCS on its own behalf, in addition to approximately 33.5 bcm (1.2 tcf) of NCS gas on behalf of the Norwegian state. Statoil's total European gas sales, including third-party gas, amounted to 79.8 bcm (2.9 tcf) in 2011, of which 39.5 bcm (1.4 tcf) was gas sold on behalf of the Norwegian state. In addition, it sold 5.5 bcm (0.2 tcf) of gas originating from its international positions, mainly in Azerbaijan and the United States, of which 2.7 bcm (0.1 tcf) was entitlement gas. As technical service provider (TSP), Statoil is responsible for the operation, maintenance and further development of the Karsto gas processing plant on behalf of the operator Gassco.
Statoil is the seller of crude oil, operating from sales offices in Stavanger, Oslo, London, Singapore, Stamford and Calgary and selling and trading crude oil, condensate, NGL and refined products. Statoil holds the lease for the South Riding Point crude oil terminal in the Bahamas, which includes, oil storage as well as loading and unloading facilities. It also operates the Mongstad terminal and has shared ownership with Petoro. The Company is a majority owner (79%) and operator of the Mongstad ref! inery in ! Norway, which has a crude oil and condensate distillation capacity of 220,000 barrels per day. It is the sole owner and operator of the Kalundborg refinery in Denmark, which has a crude oil and condensate distillation capacity of 118,000 barrels per day. In addition, it has rights to 10% of production capacity at the Shell-operated refinery in Pernis in the Netherlands, which has a crude oil distillation capacity of 400,000 barrels per day. The Company�� methanol operations consist of an 81.7% interest in the gas-based methanol plant at Tjeldbergodden, Norway, which has a design capacity of 0.95 million tons per year. It also operates the Oseberg Transportation System (36.2% interest), including the Sture crude oil terminal.
Technology, Projects and Drilling
Technology, Projects and Drilling (TPD) is responsible, as a global service provider to Statoil, for delivering projects and wells and for providing support through global expertise, standards and procurement. TPD is also responsible developing and implementing new technological solutions. Statoil's research and development portfolio is organized in seven programs covering the upstream building blocks. The research and development organization operates and develops laboratories and test facilities and has an academia program that addresses cooperation with universities and research institutes.
Global Strategy and Business Development
Global Strategy and Business Development (GSB) was established in 2011, with its main office in London. GSB sets the direction for Statoil and identifies, develops and delivers opportunities for global growth.
Hot Oil Stocks To Buy For 2014: Occidental Petroleum Corporation(OXY)
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company primarily in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Oil and Gas; Chemical; and Midstream, Marketing, and Other. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, and condensate and natural gas. Its domestic oil and gas operations are located in Texas, New Mexico, California, Kansas, Oklahoma, Utah, Colorado, North Dakota, and West Virginia; and international oil and gas operations are located in Bahrain, Bolivia, Colombia, Iraq, Libya, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. As of December 31, 2010, this segment had proved reserves of approximately 3,363 million barrels of oil equivalent. The Chemical segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals, including chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, and ethylene dichloride products; vinyls, such as vinyl chloride monomer and polyvinyl chloride; and other chemicals comprising chlorinated isocyanurates, resorcinol, sodium silicates, and calcium chloride products. The Midstream, Marketing, and Other segment gathers, treats, processes, transports, stores, purchases, and markets crude oil that includes natural gas liquids and condensate, as well as natural gas and carbon dioxide. This segment also involves in the power generation; and trades around its assets comprising pipelines and storage capacity, as well as oil and gas, other commodities, and commodity-related securities. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is based in Los Angeles, California.Advisors' Opinion:
- [By Paul]
Occidental Petroleum (OXY-N75.722.463.36%) is an integrated oil-and-gas company, with operations in the U.S.
The Los Angeles-based company has strong operating momentum, having grown 12-month sales 27 per cent and net income 76 per cent. Its stock has been a top performer over a three-year span, having gained 12 per cent a year, on average. Occidental has a market capitalization of $78-billion. It receives positive rankings from 84 per cent of researchers. It is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Jan. 26. Analysts forecast a 17 per cent year-over-year rise in adjusted earnings and a 7.6 per cent gain in sales. Occidental has an average earnings surprise rate of 6.6 per cent. It beat the consensus expectation by 8.2 per cent last quarter.
Like Chevron and El Paso, what is most attractive about Occidental is its relative value amid strong secular growth. Its stock sells for a forward earnings multiple of 13 and a book value multiple of 2.5, 28 per cent and 43 per cent peer discounts. Its PEG ratio, the stock's P/E divided by researcher's long-term growth forecast, of 0.3 represents a 70 per cent discount to estimated fair value, a compelling bargain. Occidental pays a quarterly dividend of 38 cents, converting to an annual yield of 1.6 per cent. It has grown the payout 16 per cent and 18 per cent annually, on average, respectively, over three- and five-year spans. JPMorgan, optimistic about Occidental's long-term trajectory, is skeptical of the recent rally.
Bullish Scenario: Goldman Sachs has a target of $111, suggesting a 13 per cent advance.
Bearish Scenario: JPMorgan has a target of $90, implying that the stock will drop 8 per cent.
Top Medical Companies To Watch For 2014: EQT Corporation(EQT)
EQT Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated energy company in the United States. It operates in three segments: EQT Production, EQT Midstream, and Distribution. The EQT Production segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil in the Appalachian Basin. This segment?s properties are located primarily in Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. As of December 31, 2010, it had 5.2 trillion cubic feet of proved reserves across 3.5 million acres. The EQT Midstream segment provides gathering, processing, transmission, and storage services for the independent third parties in the Appalachian Basin. It has approximately 10,900 miles of gathering lines and 770 miles of transmission lines. The Distribution segment distributes and sells natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and eastern Kentucky. It also operates a gathering system in Pennsylvania; and purchases and delivers gas to customers. This segment serves approximately 276,500 customers consisting of 257,900 residential customers, and 18,600 commercial and industrial customers. The company was formerly known as Equitable Resources, Inc. and changed its name to EQT Corporation in February 2009. EQT Corporation was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.Advisors' Opinion:
- [By Louis Navellier]
EQT Corp. (NYSE:EQT) was formerly known as Equitable Resources, Inc. and is a natural gas producer in the Appalachian Basin. Potential investors might be nervous to buy in this market, but EQT is a standout buy, up 40% in 2011.
Hot Oil Stocks To Buy For 2014: El Paso Corporation(EP)
El Paso Corporation operates in the natural gas transmission, and exploration and production sectors of the energy industry primarily in the United States. It offers natural gas transmission services to a range of customers, including natural gas producers, marketers, and end-users, as well as other natural gas transmission, distribution, and electric generation companies through its interests in approximately 43,100 miles of interstate pipeline system. The company also operates approximately 240 billion cubic feet of storage capacity, and an LNG receiving terminal in Elba Island, Georgia. In addition, El Paso Corporation focuses on the exploration, acquisition, development, and production of natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids in the United States, Brazil, and Egypt, as well as engages in midstream business. The company primarily sells its domestic natural gas and oil to third parties. As of December 31, 2010, it had proved natural gas and oil reserves of approximat ely 3.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalents. The company was founded in 1928 and is based in Houston, Texas.Advisors' Opinion:
- [By Ken Sweet]
Shares of El Paso Corp. (EP), owner of the nation's largest natural gas pipeline network, got a boost from increased investor interest in natural gas and stronger-than-expected earnings.
The company recently raised its full-year guidance to between $1and $1.10 a share, citing higher oil and gas prices.
Investors also responded positively to El Paso's decision last month to spin off its natural gas exploration and production division into a separate company, allowing El Paso to focus solely on its pipeline, transportation and distribution businesses.
Hot Oil Stocks To Buy For 2014: Gastar Exploration Ltd (GST)Gastar Exploration Ltd (Gastar) is an independent energy company engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas and oil in the United States. The Company�� principal business activities include the identification, acquisition, and subsequent exploration and development of natural gas and oil properties with an emphasis on unconventional reserves, such as shale resource plays. As of December 31, 2011, it is pursuing the development of liquids-rich natural gas in the Marcellus Shale in the Appalachia area of West Virginia and, to a lesser extent, central and southwestern Pennsylvania. The Company also holds prospective acreage in the deep Bossier play in the Hilltop area of East Texas and conduct limited coal bed methane (CBM) development activities within the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana. The Company is a holding company. Advisors' Opinion:
- [By Roberto Pedone]
Gastar Exploration (GST) is an independent energy company, engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas and oil in the U.S. This stock is trading up 2.8% to $1.26 in recent trading.
Today’s Range: $1.24-$1.30
52-Week Range: $0.70-$3.36
Three-Month Average Volume: 516,159
From a technical perspective, GST is bouncing modestly higher here right above some near-term support $1.15 with light volume. This stock has been uptrending strongly for the last month and change, with shares soaring from a low of 70 cents to its recent high of $1.38. During that move, shares of GST have been mostly making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed GST within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if GST clears some near-term overhead resistance levels at $1.38 to $1.39 with high volume.
Traders should now look for long-biased trades in GST as long as it’s trending above $1.15, and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 516,159 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then GST will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at its 200-day moving average of $1.77 or possible even $1.89 to $1.96.
Hot Oil Stocks To Buy For 2014: Nuverra Environmental Solutions Inc (NES)
Nuverra Environmental Solutions, Inc., formerly Heckmann Corporation, incorporated on May 29, 2007, provides environmental solutions to protect, enhance and advance environmental sustainability. Nuverra provides full-cycle environmental solutions to a national customer base consisting of two distinct end markets: Shale Solutions and Industrial Solutions.
The Company is focused on the removal, treatment, recycling, transportation and disposal of restricted solids, fluids and hydrocarbons for E&P customers. It also provides a one-stop-shop for energy recovery, re-refining and recycling of used motor oil and oily wastewater; plus a closed loop spent antifreeze program for retail, automotive and manufacturing customers. Nuverra specializes in providing environmentally compliant and sustainable solutions to a national footprint of customers.
Shale Solutions provides environmental solutions for unconventional oil and gas exploration and production, including the delivery, collection, treatment, recycle, and disposal of restricted environmental products used in the development of unconventional oil and natural gas fields. The Company operates in select shale areas in the United States, including the Marcellus/Utica, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Haynesville, Barnett, Permian, Mississippian Lime and Tuscaloosa Marine Shale areas. It serves customers seeking fresh water acquisition, temporary water transmission and storage, transportation, treatment or disposal of fresh water and complex water flows, such as flowback and produced brine water, in connection with shale oil and gas hydraulic fracturing drilling or hydrofracturing operations. The Company also transports fresh water for production and provides services for site preparation, water pit excavations and remediation.
Industrial Solutions provides environmental and waste recycling solutions to its customers through collection and recycling services for waste prod! ucts, including UMO, which the Company processes and sells as RFO, oily water, spent antifreeze, used oil filters and parts washers, and provision of complementary environmental services for a diverse commercial and industrial customer base. Industrial Solutions operates a scalable network infrastructure of 34 processing facilities, approximately 385 tanker trucks, vacuum trucks and trailers and over 200 railcars. With a geographic presence in 19 states in the Western United States stretching from Washington to Texas, Industrial Solutions provides its services to a diverse range of more than 20,000 commercial and industrial customer locations.